By the year 2100, our planet is poised for a profound metamorphosis, shaped either by the inexorable forces of climatic shifts or by humanity’s concerted efforts toward self-preservation. Concurrently, the urban landscapes we inhabit may undergo radical transformations, with some municipalities potentially reduced to mere vestiges of their former vitality.
A recent scholarly investigation has yielded projections indicating that by the close of this century, a significant proportion, approaching half of the approximately 30,000 urban centers across the United States, could experience a diminution in resident numbers, forecasting a loss ranging from 12 to 23 percent of their current populations.
The findings of this analysis suggest that these future urban environments are more likely to exhibit characteristics of fragmentation, reduced density, or dispersed settlement patterns rather than becoming entirely depopulated. Such demographic realignments are anticipated as populations redistribute themselves within and between cities, unless municipal authorities and urban designers proactively address and adapt to the evolving needs of their inhabitants.
“The ramifications of such substantial population attrition will undoubtedly present unparalleled difficulties, potentially precipitating disruptions in essential services including public transportation, potable water supply, electricity grids, and internet connectivity” as urban areas contract and their elderly demographics grow, the investigators have cautioned.
A contraction in population within specific urban districts might precipitate the closure of retail food establishments, thereby fostering the emergence of “food deserts.” Furthermore, deteriorating infrastructure in declining communities could compromise access to clean water, mirroring the circumstances encountered in Jackson, Mississippi, during 2021, as documented by ASCE reports.
The potential consequences stemming from urban population decline extend significantly beyond the initial scope of inquiry undertaken by Uttara Sutradhar, a doctoral candidate in civil engineering at the University of Illinois at Chicago, alongside her colleagues Lauryn Spearing and Sybil Derrible. Their initial objective was to investigate the potential transportation challenges facing municipalities within Illinois alone, as demographic patterns undergo alteration over time, a study further detailed in this publication.
Motivated by their preliminary findings, Sutradhar and her collaborators broadened their analytical framework to encompass all fifty states. Their projections are predicated upon demographic trend data derived from U.S. Census information spanning three distinct periods over two decades, supplemented by two datasets incorporating five plausible future climatic scenarios.
Their perspective was not confined to America’s most populous urban centers. The researchers adopted the U.S. Census Bureau’s definition of a city, encompassing collections of inhabitants in areas commonly recognized as boroughs, villages, and towns, in addition to major metropolitan areas.
“The majority of existing studies have concentrated on large urban areas, which fails to provide an accurate estimation of the problem’s magnitude,” Sutradhar communicated to Rachel Nuwer of Scientific American.
Presently, 43 percent of U.S. cities are experiencing a reduction in their resident populations, a figure anticipated to escalate as the century progresses, according to the analysis. Depending on the specific climate scenario under consideration, as much as 64 percent of cities could be confronting population decline by 2100, the researchers found.
The Northeastern and Midwestern regions of the country are projected to be the most affected by depopulating urban areas. Texas and Utah, despite their current growth trajectories, are also expected to witness a notable proportion of their cities undergoing population attrition by the century’s end.
It is important to acknowledge that projections of demographic trends extending decades into the future inherently carry a degree of uncertainty, and this particular analysis does not delve into the economic or social drivers underpinning these forecasted patterns.
Furthermore, the study’s scope does not incorporate intra-U.S. migration—a phenomenon already being precipitated by climate change as certain locales become increasingly uninhabitable due to extreme heat or recurrent inundation.
Setting aside these intricate factors, “the certainty lies in the imperative for a significant cultural paradigm shift within planning and engineering disciplines, moving away from conventional, growth-oriented strategies towards methodologies that accommodate a profound demographic transformation,” the researchers concluded.
Global demographic data suggests that by the century’s conclusion, individuals aged eighty and above could outnumber those under the age of five by a ratio of two to one. It is also estimated that 183 out of 195 recognized nations may have transitioned into a state of population retrograde, characterized by fertility rates falling below the replacement level.
However, each urban center will navigate its unique path, confronting its own distinct climatic and demographic shifts, thereby underscoring the necessity for localized planning strategies.
