The integration of artificial intelligence into daily life has been remarkably swift. Despite ChatGPT being a relatively recent innovation, it has significantly reshaped communication paradigms and our methods for processing extensive information.
This technological advancement has concurrently ignited substantial apprehension regarding employment landscapes. The fundamental question arises: if machines surpass human capabilities in deciphering intricate legal documents, performing language translations, or constructing persuasive arguments, will human workers become superfluous? Is widespread job displacement an impending reality?
However, an examination of broader economic indicators does not currently support this dire prediction.
Unemployment figures across the European Union are currently at a historic low, hovering around 6%, a figure halved compared to a decade ago. In the United Kingdom, the rate is even more favorable at 5.1%, approximating the levels seen during the prosperous early 2000s, and in the United States, it stands at an even lower 4.4%.
The persistence of robust employment levels is attributable to the dual nature of technological progress: while it renders certain human endeavors obsolete, it simultaneously fosters the creation of novel occupational roles.
This phenomenon is not without precedent. For instance, in 1800, approximately one-third of the British workforce was engaged in agricultural pursuits. Today, the proportion of individuals employed in farming has dramatically decreased to around 1%.
The mechanization of agriculture was instrumental in positioning the nation as a pioneering force during the industrial revolution, a transition that unlocked unprecedented avenues for economic expansion.
More recently, following the introduction of the world’s inaugural automated teller machine (ATM) by Barclays in London in 1967, widespread anxieties circulated concerning the potential demise of bank branch staff.
Conversely, the outcome proved to be quite different. Over the thirty-year period marked by the proliferation of ATMs in the US, the number of bank tellers actually experienced a 10% increase. The advent of ATMs facilitated the cost-effective establishment of more bank branches, as fewer personnel were required per location, thereby expanding access to financial services for a greater number of communities.
It is only in the current era, with the ubiquitous presence of banking services accessible via mobile devices, that a pronounced downturn in the number of high street bank employees is being observed.
An Imposition?
It is undeniable that AI will displace a segment of the workforce. A significant proportion of Americans express concern about the potential for their positions to be superseded by AI, and this apprehension is not unfounded for many.
Nevertheless, since the dawn of the industrial revolution, the global economy has witnessed a continuous stream of innovations, underpinning an unparalleled trajectory of exponential economic growth.
AI, much like the computer, the internet, the railway system, or electrical appliances, represents a gradual revolution. While it will inevitably alter established practices over time, this transformation will simultaneously generate novel opportunities for the emergence of new enterprises.
Just as there has been no immediate surge in economic growth directly attributable to AI thus far, there is no discernible immediate seismic shift in employment figures. What is predominantly observed are organizations leveraging AI as a pretext for conventional workforce reductions. This circumstance then prompts a more nuanced discussion regarding how AI might reshape the meaningfulness of our professional roles and the remuneration associated with them.
The trajectory of technological advancement inherently presents a bifurcated outcome.
Bank tellers found their roles enhanced by the advent of ATMs, transitioning from mere cash handlers to providers of financial guidance. In 2016, a prominent figure in AI development, Geoff Hinton, advised the global community to “stop training radiologists” due to AI’s increasing proficiency in image analysis.
A decade later, the demand for radiologists in the United States has reached record levels. The utilization of AI in image interpretation has augmented the value of radiologists’ expertise, enabling them to attend to a larger patient volume, most of whom presumably prefer human interaction.
Consequently, from an employee’s perspective, the optimal career path involves roles where technology amplifies productivity, rather than positions that reduce individuals to mere subservient operators of machines.
Any Inequality?
A further pertinent inquiry arising from the proliferation of AI concerns its potential impact on the disparity in earnings among different worker demographics.
Initially, the prevailing sentiment was that democratizing access to an AI assistant proficient in information processing and clear communication would lead to a reduction in earning disparities. However, more recent academic investigations suggest the converse is true, indicating that highly skilled entrepreneurs are deriving the most substantial benefits from AI-powered support.
One crucial factor contributing to this outcome is that the ability to effectively utilize advice is, in itself, a distinct skill. My own research, conducted in collaboration with colleagues, has demonstrated that providing chess players with high-caliber strategic guidance has a limited effect on narrowing the skill gap between elite and novice players, primarily because less proficient players are less inclined to implement such sophisticated advice.
Perhaps the most significant risk posed by AI lies in its potential to disproportionately benefit certain individuals over others.
This could result in a scenario where one segment of the population leverages AI to streamline their daily lives but remains confined to low-productivity jobs lacking any prospect of substantial financial gain. Concurrently, a smaller, more privileged group of well-educated professionals would flourish by orchestrating the deployment of AI and capitalizing on the wealth generated by these advanced systems.
Historically, every technological epoch has advanced global prosperity, health outcomes, and overall quality of life. However, the transitional phases of these revolutions are invariably challenging. The critical juncture ahead involves determining how societies can empower all individuals to become masters of these sophisticated technologies, rather than their subordinates.
