The advent of a new year has historically been recognized as a significant juncture for personal transformation. Empirical evidence from psychological studies indicates that temporal markers such as anniversaries, Mondays, or the commencement of a new calendar year can function as psychological breakpoints, prompting individuals to introspect and pursue novel objectives.
This phenomenon was conceptually articulated by researchers over a decade ago and termed the “fresh start effect.”
However, a considerable number of individuals approach the new year with diminished enthusiasm compared to previous years.
We are presently navigating an era characterized by a decline in mental well-being, particularly among younger demographics, where the proposition of envisioning change can induce apprehension. Factors such as ecological anxieties, geopolitical instability, and economic insecurity can collectively render the notion of a complete “reset” as rather unfeasible.
Furthermore, scholarly investigations reveal that recurrent or externally imposed alterations can precipitate a state of “change fatigue.” This condition manifests as profound emotional exhaustion, consequently diminishing individuals’ receptivity to engaging with new initiatives, even when presented in a favorable light. Rather than fostering renewed optimism, appeals for change may elicit skepticism, withdrawal, or apathy in affected individuals.
Our inherent capacity to conceptualize future scenarios is not without its limitations. Extensive research concerning anxiety and uncertainty consistently demonstrates that when individuals perceive themselves as being under duress or lacking agency, their prospective cognitive orientation constricts. Instead of exploring a spectrum of potential outcomes, their focus tends to gravitate towards perceived risks, potential losses, and adverse eventualities.
Consequently, if you find yourself encountering difficulties in enacting change, the underlying issue may not necessarily stem from a deficit in imagination or hope. It is plausible that prevailing circumstances are creating impediments to the optimal functioning of both hope and imagination.
My own scholarly pursuits at the DCU Centre for Possibility Studies are concentrated on what psychologists refer to as possibility thinking. This construct encapsulates an individual’s perception of potential avenues for alteration, their exploration of alternative courses of action, and their subjective sense of efficacy in executing those actions.
A 2024 study indicated that these constituent elements require mutual reinforcement. When individuals can discern opportunities but feel disempowered to capitalize on them, or conversely, feel motivated but lack the cognitive capacity to envisage alternatives, meaningful transformation becomes an arduous undertaking.
This particular pattern was observed in a December 2025 study, where I served as a co-author. The research involved educators participating in a professional development initiative designed to foster possibility thinking. Concurrently, participants learned of their impending relocation to a new educational facility due to the impending demolition of their current premises.
A significant proportion of the educators expressed emotional exhaustion in anticipation of yet another disruptive transition. The prevailing sentiment was one of depletion and diminished motivation, rather than enthusiasm.
While this scenario pertains to a life transition rather than the cyclical nature of the new year, it offers valuable insights into why initiating fresh starts can feel more challenging in the contemporary milieu. When individuals perceive a change as inequitable, inadequately supported, and potentially detrimental, their inclination to embrace it wanes, and their resistance may intensify. This can subsequently erode their capacity to engage with emergent possibilities.
This also elucidates the common phenomenon of New Year’s resolutions proving unsustainable: individuals frequently approach them as mere tests of sheer willpower. However, research findings underscore that enduring change is far more contingent upon the strategic formulation, supportive infrastructure, and integration of goals into the fabric of daily existence.
Extensive research conducted over several decades on behavioral modification indicates that motivational drivers are intrinsically linked to contextual factors. Temporal pressures, financial strains, caregiving obligations, and systemic constraints all impose limitations on what individuals can realistically alter, irrespective of their underlying intentions.
Rather than concentrating on ambitious self-reinvention, a more pragmatic approach might involve inquiring about the minor adjustments that are feasible within your current limitations. Possibility thinking does not necessitate the dismissal of constraints or the pretense of universal improvement. It entails cultivating the ability to interact constructively with limitations, rather than opposing them.
For instance, an individual with recognized constraints on their time and energy might establish a resolution such as: “I will incorporate a 10-minute walk into my daily schedule, perhaps post-lunch or after dropping off the children, and I will adapt this routine weekly based on what proves genuinely sustainable for me.”
It is equally vital to acknowledge that the act of envisioning the future need not be an solitary endeavor. Investigations into collective agency demonstrate that individuals exhibit enhanced proficiency in conceptualizing and sustaining change when responsibilities are shared across groups, whether within familial units, professional environments, or broader communities. Collaborative discussions regarding limitations and potential pathways forward can broaden the scope of what is perceived as attainable.
As an illustration, a family could collectively resolve to prepare more meals at home, apportioning tasks such that one member is responsible for menu planning, another takes charge of cooking on designated evenings, and children assist with food preparation. In this manner, the responsibility for enacting and maintaining the change is borne by the collective, rather than resting solely on one individual.
Ultimately, the new year represents a potent cultural milestone. However, in a world profoundly shaped by uncertainty and pervasive fatigue, the impetus for renewal is unlikely to originate from an exhortation to “start afresh” or exert greater effort. It may instead arise from cultivating a distinct mode of envisioning: in concert with others, within defined parameters, and in ways that render positive, albeit incremental, changes still within the realm of possibility.
