A recent analysis indicates that a substantial number of glaciers globally are projected to vanish annually in the coming decades, with only a scant portion expected to persist by the close of the century, absent decisive action to mitigate global warming.
The research posits that governmental interventions concerning climate change will significantly influence whether the planet witnesses the annual demise of 2,000 or 4,000 glaciers by the century’s midpoint.
A modest temperature variance could represent the crucial factor determining whether approximately half of the world’s glaciers are preserved into the year 2100, or if fewer than 10 percent endure.
“Our findings emphatically highlight the imperative for robust climate policy,” stated the study, which was published in the esteemed journal Nature Climate Change and spearheaded by glaciologist Lander Van Tricht.
While scientific investigations commonly concentrate on the reduction in mass and surface area of the Earth’s colossal ice formations, Van Tricht and his research associates embarked on an endeavor to quantify the potential annual loss of individual glaciers throughout the current century.
Although the attrition of smaller, distinct glaciers might exert a less pronounced influence on global sea-level rise compared to their larger counterparts, their disappearance can profoundly disrupt local economies reliant on tourism and cultural heritage, according to the scientific consensus.
“The cessation of each individual glacier’s existence can precipitate significant localized repercussions, irrespective of its minimal contribution to meltwater,” Van Tricht, affiliated with both ETH Zurich and Vrije Universiteit Brussel, communicated to members of the press.
Co-author Matthias Huss, also a glaciologist at ETH Zurich, participated in a poignant symbolic ceremony in 2019 commemorating the Pizol glacier’s demise in the Swiss Alps.
“The glacial attrition we are discussing transcends mere scientific data; it deeply affects us emotionally,” he conveyed.
‘Peak extinction’
The researchers meticulously analyzed the satellite-derived outlines of 211,490 glaciers, sourced from a comprehensive global repository, to pinpoint the year anticipated to witness the most significant annual glacial disappearance – a phenomenon they have termed “peak glacier extinction.”
Employing sophisticated glacier computational models, they simulated various atmospheric warming trajectories, encompassing scenarios from a modest 1.5°C rise above pre-industrial levels to a more severe 4°C increase.
Currently, the planet is experiencing the annual loss of approximately 1,000 glaciers; however, the study issues a grave warning that this rate is poised for acceleration.
The annual toll of disappearing glaciers is projected to reach its zenith at 2,000 by the year 2041, even under the most optimistic scenario of limiting global warming to 1.5°C – the benchmark established by the Paris Agreement to avert the most catastrophic climate change impacts.
At this accelerated rate, a mere 95,957 glaciers are estimated to remain across the globe by the year 2100, constituting just under half of the current population.
However, the United Nations has issued a cautionary note, suggesting that global temperatures are trending towards exceeding the 1.5°C threshold within the imminent years.
Based on projections indicating a 2.7°C temperature rise under existing governmental policies, the glaciologists anticipate that approximately 3,000 glaciers could vanish annually between 2040 and 2060.
By 2100, in a world experiencing a 2.7°C warming, only one in five glaciers, amounting to 43,852, would likely survive.
Under a calamitous worst-case scenario, where temperatures escalate by 4°C, as many as 4,000 glaciers could disappear each year by the mid-2050s.
Consequently, a mere nine percent of glaciers, or 18,288, would persist by the century’s conclusion.
Almost zero
The temporal dynamics of peak glacial obliteration exhibit regional variability, contingent upon the size and geographical placement of these ice formations.
In territories characterized by predominantly smaller glaciers, such as the European Alps and the subtropical Andes, a significant portion could cease to exist within two decades.
Conversely, in regions harboring more substantial glaciers, including Greenland and the Antarctic periphery, the point of maximum annual glacial loss is anticipated to occur later in the century.
The research team emphasized that while peak glacial disappearance is an inevitable outcome across all assessed scenarios, the subsequent decline in the rate of loss is primarily attributable to the diminishing number of remaining glaciers and the extended timescale required for larger glaciers to melt.
For instance, Van Tricht elaborated, the attrition rate in the Alps is expected to diminish to near-zero levels by the century’s end, “simply because there are virtually no glaciers left.”
