The escalating impacts of climate change, particularly the rise in global temperatures, could precipitate an annual increase in food costs of up to 3.2%, according to a recent investigation undertaken by German researchers.
As the effects of climate change intensify, this surge in food prices is projected to curtail access to nutritious and varied diets for an increasing segment of the global population, or even lead to outright scarcity.
The latest findings indicate that by 2035, global warming might escalate food price inflation by a range of 0.9 to 3.2 percentage points annually. Concurrently, general inflation is expected to rise at a slower pace, between 0.3 and 1.2 percentage points. This disparity means a larger proportion of household budgets will necessarily be allocated to food procurement.
This phenomenon is poised to exert a global influence, affecting both affluent and developing economies. Nonetheless, the repercussions will be most acutely felt in the Global South. In a manner consistent with numerous other climate change ramifications, Africa is anticipated to bear the brunt of these impacts, despite its minimal contribution to the underlying causes.
Our own research concerning food security within Ghana, a nation in West Africa, offers a tangible illustration of the implications of such price inflation.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has designated West Africa as a crucial “hotspot” for climate change. Predictive models forecast significant increases in ambient temperatures and a reduction in precipitation levels. Given that over half of the populace relies directly on rain-fed agriculture, Ghana is exceptionally susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change.
We recently conducted a comprehensive study in Mion, a rural district situated in the northern part of the country. Our interviews with nearly 400 individuals revealed that every single participant had encountered some degree of food insecurity within the preceding twelve months. A staggering 99% attributed this insecurity, at least partially, to climate change.
Furthermore, 62% of respondents experienced moderate to severe food insecurity, with 26% facing acute food insecurity, defined as periods of going without food for an entire day. These figures represent a substantial deterioration compared to Ghana’s national averages of 39% and 6% respectively. However, they are comparable to the statistics observed in some of the most economically disadvantaged nations in West Africa, such as Togo, Burkina Faso, and Benin.
A parallel investigation was also undertaken among refugees from neighboring Burkina Faso who had sought refuge in Ghana’s Upper East region. Here too, a full 100% of the displaced population reported pervasive food insecurity.
The challenges faced in Mion do not stem from an immediate famine or any extraordinary recent events. Instead, this condition is recognized as a “routine occurrence”, a direct consequence of the ongoing impacts of climate change.
Food inflation exacerbated by climatic shifts can be conceptualized as comprising two interconnected issues.
Shifting seasons, pests and diseases
The primary concern is that the very climate change factors driving inflation are simultaneously diminishing food availability. For instance, elevated temperatures can disrupt established and predictable agricultural seasons, thereby impeding crop yields.
Additional consequences include an increased propensity for pest and disease outbreaks that decimate livestock and essential food stores. Moreover, heat stress can negatively affect the infrastructure of poorly maintained roads, complicating access to rural communities.
Collectively, these contributing elements exert upward pressure on prices while eroding the purchasing power of affected households. The underlying causes of food inflation are thus already exacerbating food insecurity.
The secondary aspect of this predicament is the phenomenon of inflation itself. An annual price escalation of 3% would significantly curtail households’ capacity to acquire essential goods.
Consequently, individuals would likely be compelled to make compromises on the quality of their food or even forego culturally significant provisions. This, in turn, amplifies susceptibility to illness and other health complications. Globally, malnutrition stands as the principal determinant of immunodeficiency.
Our findings in Ghana revealed a correlation: individuals possessing greater awareness of climate change were more likely to achieve food security, even in the absence of formal education. This suggests that affected populations exhibit a keen understanding of escalating temperatures and climate unpredictability, potentially leading them to implement proactive adaptive strategies.
Those without formal schooling are more inclined to engage in climate-sensitive professions, such as agriculture, and are therefore more directly exposed. Educating individuals about climate change could equip them with the tools to adapt, thereby bolstering food security.
Transformations in climatic conditions serve as a “hunger-risk multiplier” for populations already contending with entrenched vulnerabilities. In light of this, 134 nations at COP28 endorsed the Emirates Declaration, committing to integrate food systems into their climate action plans to ensure universal access to adequate food amidst climate change.
The authors of the recent study propose that a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions could mitigate the adverse effects on the global economy. We further advocate for economic diversification as a protective measure for communities whose sustenance and income are predominantly derived from agriculture.
Moreover, governmental interventions could provide crucial financial safeguards and nutritional support for those at risk of falling into a cycle of poverty due to inflation and diminished food accessibility.
