The emblematic “Doomsday Clock” was maintained at 90 seconds prior to midnight on Tuesday, a reflection of humanity’s peril stemming from the potential nuclear escalation associated with the conflict in Ukraine and the compounding ramifications of the climate crisis, which saw Earth endure its warmest year on record.
Established by eminent scientists and security strategists, the clock’s designation remains unchanged from the previous year, positioning it at its closest proximity to midnight in its 75-year plus existence.
“The prevailing trends continue to cast a dark shadow over global stability, pointing towards an impending catastrophe,” stated Rachel Bronson, the president and chief executive officer of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.
“The ongoing hostilities in Ukraine present a persistent threat of nuclear escalation, and the events of October 7th in Israel, along with the ensuing conflict in Gaza, serve as further stark demonstrations of the devastating nature of contemporary warfare, even in the absence of nuclear engagement.”
Instead of relinquishing their nuclear arsenals, nations possessing such weaponry are actively modernizing their stockpiles. Concurrently, widespread inundation, destructive conflagrations, and other climate-related calamities endangered billions of lives and livelihoods during a year characterized by unprecedentedly high temperatures, a direct consequence of humanity’s continued reliance on fossil fuels.
“While biological research dedicated to pandemic prevention has yielded beneficial outcomes, it also introduces the potential for sparking such an outbreak,” Bronson commented. She further elaborated that recent strides in artificial intelligence (AI) raise significant considerations regarding the governance of a technology “capable of either advancing or endangering civilization in myriad unforeseen ways.”
The Ukrainian Conflict’s Foreboding Presence
Russia’s incursion into Ukraine, which is nearing its second anniversary, was the primary impetus behind the clock’s adjustment to 90 seconds before midnight in 2023 and continued to heavily influence this year’s assessment.
Moscow’s thinly veiled nuclear threats, its targeted attacks on nuclear facilities, and its systematic undermining of international conduct standards have collectively amplified the peril, according to the Bulletin. Additionally, Israel’s military operations in Gaza risk evolving into a broader regional confrontation involving nuclear-capable states.
In parallel, “traditional nuclear arms control has effectively ceased to exist for the time being,” observed Alex Glaser, a distinguished professor of mechanical and aerospace engineering at Princeton University.
Russia has disengaged from the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), the latter having never been ratified by the United States.
China is currently enhancing its nuclear arsenal, which now comprises 500 warheads. Glaser added, “and for the first time, at least within my adult memory, there is now discourse in Washington suggesting that the US nuclear arsenal will need to expand as well, in order to counterbalance… the combined might of Russia and China.”
Regarding the climate front, Ambuj Sagar, a professor at the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, characterized the situation as a “mixed narrative.” He acknowledged the $1.7 trillion investment in clean energy at the COP climate conference in Dubai as a positive stride in the right direction, though he qualified it as “neither as rapid nor as profound” as is critically necessary.
Initially, the clock was set at seven minutes to midnight in 1947.
Its furthest point from midnight was recorded at 17 minutes, following the cessation of the Cold War in 1991.
The Bulletin was established in 1945 by a collective of scientists, including Albert Einstein and J. Robert Oppenheimer, who were instrumental in the development of the first nuclear weapons under the Manhattan Project. The concept of the clock as a symbol of the world’s vulnerability to catastrophic events emerged two years later.
