The global human population surpassed the eight billion mark in November of 2022.
A recent analysis now contends that the world’s inhabitants might reach a zenith of merely nine billion by 2050, a figure significantly lower than earlier projections suggested.
Contrasting with more established forecasts, such as those disseminated by the United Nations, this latest forecast could be interpreted as either a welcome relief or a harbinger of dire circumstances.
The advantages and disadvantages associated with the planet’s expanding human populace are subjects of intense discussion, with advocates highlighting beneficial impacts on economic growth and technological advancement, while detractors emphasize the inherent risks to ecological systems and societal equilibrium.
While one could posit that smaller populations necessitate reduced demands for energy, shelter, sustenance, and water, several crucial considerations emerge. Foremost among these is that an impending deceleration in population expansion underscores the necessity for substantial capital infusions in educational and healthcare sectors, alongside strategies for ameliorating economic disparities within an aging demographic.
“These remarkable shifts are conceptualized as strategic and investment frameworks designed to benefit the majority of individuals,” the report’s authors state within their findings.
“They are not an endeavor to manifest an unattainable ideal; rather, they serve as an indispensable bedrock for a resilient global society facing unprecedented planetary pressures.”
The projections presented in this report are grounded in comprehensive research, a significant portion of which implicates the wealthiest ten percent of the global population as primary contributors to overconsumption, thereby jeopardizing environmental stability, including the exacerbation of climate change.
“The foremost challenge confronting humanity is not population size, but rather excessive consumption of luxury carbon and biosphere resources,” asserts environmental scientist Jorgen Randers, one of the computational modelers for Earth4All, the initiative that collaborated with the Global Challenges Foundation to produce this document.
“Regions experiencing the most rapid population growth exhibit per capita environmental footprints considerably smaller than those that achieved their population peak many decades prior.”
The authors’ methodology involved forecasting population dynamics within distinct major geographical areas, utilizing scientific data with the overarching objective of cultivating a human population capable of sustained prosperity on Earth.
The analysis encompasses ten countries and regions, ranging from China and the United States to Sub-Saharan Africa. Currently, the highest population growth rates are observed in several African nations, including Angola, Niger, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Nigeria, as well as in certain Asian countries like Afghanistan.
Employing a recently developed dynamic simulation model, the researchers explored two divergent potential scenarios for the current century.
The initial scenario, grimly designated “Too Little Too Late,” posits a trajectory for the world mirroring its progression since 1980. This projection is predicated on the assumption that variables such as fertility rates, savings and debt levels, taxation policies, and income models will persist in their established patterns.
This scenario anticipates a global population peak of 8.8 billion midway through the present century, followed by a gradual reduction to 7.3 billion by the year 2100.
Indicators such as global inequality, ecological impact, and biodiversity loss are projected to escalate as economic and population growth decelerate. Regional societal breakdowns may become more prevalent due to widening social divisions, both internally and between nations, particularly affecting countries with fragile economies and inadequate governance structures.
In a more optimistic outlook, termed the “Giant Leap,” the global population is projected to peak at 8.5 billion around 2040, subsequently decreasing to just six billion by the century’s end. The report’s authors identify the acknowledgment of global economic disparity as a source of societal fragmentation and a threat to democratic principles and human advancement as a pivotal determinant of this favorable outcome.
Within this hypothetical future, absolute destitution is envisioned to be eradicated by 2060, a development expected to exert a profound influence on the trajectory of global population expansion.
This transformative shift necessitates substantial investments in poverty alleviation and revolutionary policies addressing food and energy security, inequality, and gender parity.
“An improved quality of life for all is achievable only through a reduction in the excessive resource utilization by the affluent elite,” clarifies Randers.
Other prominent projections, according to the report’s authors, tend to overlook the potential of rapid economic development as a palliative for escalating population figures.
“Few widely recognized models undertake a simultaneous simulation of population growth, economic development, and their interrelationships,” observes economist Beniamino Callegari, a co-author of the report.
Furthermore, the United Nations’ modeling methodology is criticized for its inability to elucidate the origins of demographic trends and future shifts, as detailed in the report. This includes, for instance, the underlying reasons and mechanisms by which a society’s birth and death rates diverge from established historical patterns, and the implications of such deviations for its future trajectory.
“We are aware that accelerated economic progress in less affluent nations significantly influences fertility rates,” adds co-author Per Espen Stoknes, a psychologist and economist. “Fertility rates tend to decline as educational opportunities for girls expand, women achieve economic empowerment, and access to superior healthcare services is enhanced.”
Further investigation and substantial societal modifications are undeniably warranted.
The authors emphasize, “Our objective in presenting these scenarios is to demonstrate that (1) demographic, socio-economic, and environmental transformations are feasible, and (2) their scale and ultimate consequences will be predominantly dictated by the actions we undertake within the current decade.”
This comprehensive report has been published as a preliminary document under the title: People and Planet: 21st Century Sustainable Population Scenarios and Possible Living Standards Within Planetary Boundaries.
