The present coronavirus situation has escalated into a full-blown crisis; let us ensure this moment serves as a catalyst for progress.

It is indisputable that the global community is treating this matter with the utmost gravity, as warranted, considering that the fatalities attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic considerably exceed those from the SARS outbreak in the early 2000s.

The designation of the outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization, the intensive global efforts by researchers to develop vaccines for COVID-19, and the substantial investments by governments, including those of the US and UK, earmarked for advancing research and development, as exemplified by the EU’s €10 million pledge all demonstrate a robust international response.

Nonetheless, despite the generally strong global reaction to COVID-19, it might be reasonably argued that the measures taken were insufficient and arrived too late, given that the epidemic is already in full swing.

This represents a regrettable misstep that we must endeavor not to replicate.

As professionals engaged in the study of global health, our work involves scrutinizing the comprehensive societal benefits derived from immunization programs and other strategies aimed at combating communicable diseases. In light of the profound financial burdens associated with epidemic events, it is imperative that we commence preparations for subsequent outbreaks, even as the world grapples with the ongoing challenge of COVID-19.

A Foreseeable Sequence of Events

What is particularly striking about the current predicament is its inherent predictability.

The emergence of the outbreak from interspecies transmission events, potentially involving bats, was a foreseeable scenario. Likewise, its origin in a densely populated urban center and its rapid dissemination via international air travel were anticipated developments. The possibility that an as-yet-undiscovered pathogen could trigger an epidemic with the same efficacy as an established one was also within the realm of prediction.

Similar to the patterns observed during the SARS and Zika outbreaks, the causative agent of the present epidemic was not on the collective consciousness prior to its widespread impact in China and beyond.

Furthermore, it was also foreseeable that a swiftly escalating epidemic would precipitate substantial and multifaceted repercussions across health, economic, and social spheres, as highlighted by Al Jazeera’s reporting on the strain on China’s healthcare system.

In less than two months since the epidemic’s onset, China’s healthcare infrastructure has already endured significant pressure, with Wuhan facing particular difficulties in delivering adequate care to those afflicted by the coronavirus. This situation may also be diverting resources from the treatment of other ailments.

The economic ramifications encompass considerable disruptions to manufacturing operations, supply chain integrity, consumer spending, international transit, and educational continuity.

Concurrently, emergent political and societal challenges are mounting, including widespread confinement measures, instances of xenophobia, the proliferation of false narratives, a decline in public trust in governmental institutions, and amplified tensions in already strained international relations.

The aggregate costs stemming from this epidemic are substantial at this juncture and could escalate considerably.

The Inevitability of Epidemic Events

The predictable nature of the present circumstance underscores the unavoidable reality of disease outbreaks and epidemics.

While we may be unable to pinpoint the precise time, location, or etiological agent with absolute certainty, we can be assured that another threat is perpetually present. Moreover, numerous indicators suggest that the frequency of such occurrences is likely to increase.

Despite a deceleration in global population expansion, growth continues unabated in regions most vulnerable economically and politically. The ongoing trend of urbanization is fostering the development of expansive, densely populated settlements that function as incubators for infectious agents. Concurrently, an aging global demographic is augmenting the proportion of individuals susceptible to infection and illness.

Changes in climate are contributing to the expansion of geographic ranges for certain pathogens and critical disease vectors, such as mosquitoes with the ongoing effects of climate change. Furthermore, human encroachment into wildlife habitats is increasing the probability of cross-species pathogen transmission.

The increasing prevalence of international travel, coupled with the interconnectedness fostered by globalization, ensures that the economic repercussions of any outbreak, regardless of its origin, will propagate across vast distances, affecting humanity globally.

Proactive Measures for Contingencies

Considering the extensive ramifications of epidemics and the confluence of factors that favor their recurrent manifestation, sustained and substantial investments in organizations and initiatives focused on outbreak preparedness, prevention, mitigation, and response are poised to yield considerable benefits.

The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, an alliance dedicated to funding and coordinating the development of novel vaccines, warrants significant financial backing, as does the broader advancement of vaccine platform technologies.

Similarly, there is an urgent need for enhanced financial support for innovative antimicrobial treatments and improved diagnostic capabilities. Intensified surveillance for pathogens in both human and animal populations represents another critical imperative.

Perhaps more so than funding, a deficiency in cohesive coordination among the numerous entities within the loosely structured network of international and national organizations responsible for containing and responding to infectious disease outbreaks appears to be a significant impediment.

The fragmented structure of the global health system fosters potential gaps in research and functional capacity, alongside inefficient duplication of efforts.

We have previously advocated for the establishment of a global technical consortium focused on infectious disease threats. Such a body would aim to enhance inter-organizational collaboration and coordination, undertake essential research, and formulate high-level, evidence-based recommendations for managing global risks.

This proposed council would comprise specialists from a diverse array of disciplines, including epidemiology, vaccinology, public policy, and economics, and could operate under the auspices of the WHO or as an independent entity.

Ultimately, a greater and sustained allocation of resources is critically needed to avert, or at the very least, mitigate the impact of the next epidemic. This threat could manifest as another coronavirus, a hemorrhagic fever such as Ebola, a pandemic influenza strain, or an as-yet-undiscovered pathogen.

While implementing these preparatory measures may entail substantial expenditure, the cost of inaction would be far greater. The specter of the next outbreak looms imminently.

David E. Bloom, Professor of Economics and Demography at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, and Daniel Cadarette, Research Assistant at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.