The ramifications of inter-group hostilities on demographic trends have been a subject of extensive discourse, particularly concerning prehistoric and non-state civilizations. Researchers from the Complexity Science Hub, in conjunction with the University of Washington and the Leibniz-Zentrum für Archäologie, posit that beyond direct fatalities from combat, confrontations can also precipitate a ‘landscape of fear’. This phenomenon compels numerous non-combatants situated proximate to conflict zones to forsake their abodes and embark on migratory journeys.
The Battle of Orsha by Hans Krell.
“Across the globe, academics have rigorously investigated and debated the prevalence and influence of conflicts in antiquity,” remarked Dr. Daniel Kondor, a scholar affiliated with the Complexity Science Hub.
“Nonetheless, the precise quantification of their impacts, such as those affecting population aggregates, remains a formidable challenge.”
“This complexity is further compounded by the potential for ancillary consequences, for instance, individuals who, driven by apprehension, depart from their domiciles or actively shun particular territories.”
Such indirect ramifications of strife may have precipitated substantial, enduring demographic fluctuations in societies lacking centralized governance, exemplified by Neolithic Europe (dating roughly from 7,000 to 3,000 BCE).
“Our simulations demonstrate that an atmosphere of conflict-induced dread contributed to population contractions in areas perceived as hazardous.”
“Consequently, populations converged in more secure locales, such as elevated terrains, where heightened population density could precipitate elevated mortality rates and diminished procreation.”
“The outcomes derived from these simulation exercises align commendably with empirical evidence gleaned from archaeological fieldwork, such as the findings at the Late Neolithic settlement of Kapellenberg, situated near Frankfurt and dated to approximately 3700 BCE,” added Dr. Detlef Gronenborn, a researcher at the Leibniz Centre for Archaeology.
“In that particular context, we observe numerous instances of temporary relinquishment of arable land, coinciding with a withdrawal of communities to sites offering superior defensibility and significant investments in extensive defensive infrastructure, including ramparts, palisades, and ditches.”
“This aggregation of individuals in specific, often heavily fortified positions could have fostered widening economic disparities and the establishment of political hierarchies that served to legitimize these stratifications,” stated Dr. Peter Turchin, a researcher at the Complexity Science Hub.
“Thus, it is conceivable that the indirect repercussions of conflict played a pivotal role in the genesis of more expansive political entities and the ascension of nascent states.”
In order to model population dynamics within Neolithic Europe, the authors devised an innovative computational framework.
To validate their model, they recourse to a repository of archaeological site data, scrutinizing the volume of radiocarbon dating measurements from diverse geographical areas and temporal epochs, predicated on the supposition that this data reflects the intensity of human activities and, consequently, demographic magnitudes.
“This approach empowers us to investigate the characteristic amplitudes and temporal scales pertinent to demographic expansion and contraction across the European continent. Our ambition was for our simulated projections to accurately mirror these observed patterns,” Dr. Kondor elaborated.
“To attain the most comprehensive understanding feasible, direct collaboration with archaeological experts is of paramount importance.”
“This investigation serves as a salient illustration of the considerable potential inherent in such interdisciplinary partnerships.”
The research endeavor was disseminated through the Journal of the Royal Society Interface.
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Dániel Kondor et al. 2024. Landscape of fear: indirect effects of conflict can account for large-scale population declines in non-state societies. J. R. Soc. Interface 21 (217): 20240210; doi: 10.1098/rsif.2024.0210
This article was adapted from an original release by the Complexity Science Hub.
