WASHINGTON (AP) – Intensified marine heat waves are significantly amplifying the destructive power of hurricanes and tropical cyclones globally, according to a recent scientific investigation.
An analysis encompassing 1,600 tropical cyclones – the umbrella term for storms including hurricanes – that made landfall since 1981 revealed a discernible correlation: cyclones traversing exceptionally warm ocean waters exhibited a considerably higher propensity for rapid intensification. This phenomenon is becoming increasingly prevalent.
A more profound comprehension of how oceanic heat waves exacerbate hurricane intensity could prove invaluable for meteorologists, disaster management authorities, and long-term strategic planners in their preparations for forthcoming storm events.
The research defined marine heat waves as persistent, expansive regions of ocean surface water experiencing temperatures within the upper 10% of historical averages. These events are escalating in danger due to the ongoing impacts of climate change and progressively warmer oceans, as noted by the study’s authors. Elevated ocean temperatures serve as a critical energy source for hurricanes.
“These oceanic heat waves exert an influence on more than half of all tropical cyclones that make landfall,” stated Gregory Foltz, a co-author of the study and an oceanographer affiliated with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
“Their proximity to shore and increased frequency warrant heightened public awareness, as they are substantially more likely to precipitate catastrophic damage upon landfall,” he added.
For forecasters tracking storm trajectories, identifying whether a hurricane is traversing a marine heat wave is crucial, given the increased likelihood of rapid intensification, which “could potentially lead to a more significant impact at landfall,” observed Foltz.
Illustrative examples can be found in the severe hurricanes that impacted the United States in 2023, as highlighted by Hamed Moftakhari, a professor of coastal engineering at the University of Alabama and a co-author of the study, who specializes in the analysis of compound hazards.
“The narrative surrounding Helene and Milton underscores that warmer oceans provide the requisite energy to supercharge tropical cyclones, even in a cascading scenario. Consequently, within a few weeks, two rapidly intensifying hurricanes could make landfall on Florida’s west coast,” Moftakhari remarked.
“This revelation is not only striking but should also serve as a significant cause for concern among the public.”
The investigation also draws attention to Hurricane Otis in October 2023. This storm underwent a drastic transformation from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane within a single day, subsequently causing an estimated $16 billion in damages and claiming 52 lives upon its approach to Acapulco, Mexico, with sustained winds of 165 mph (265 kph).
The researchers concluded that the amplified damage, when contrasted with storms that did not encounter marine heat waves, was not attributable to increased coastal development.
Comparisons were drawn between storms that impacted developed coastlines after traversing warm waters and other storms that struck similarly urbanized locales but had not passed over elevated ocean temperatures, according to Soheil Radfar, the study’s lead author and a scientist specializing in hurricane hazard modeling at Princeton University.
Scientific consensus has long established that elevated ocean temperatures fuel and often intensify tropical cyclones, thereby strengthening the causal link.
This trend suggests a more perilous future, Radfar cautioned.
“The confluence of factors – including accelerated intensification and increased occurrences of marine heat waves – will present formidable challenges for coastal environments over the next forty years,” Radfar stated.
“This scenario portends substantial economic losses and considerable apprehension for coastal regions, and it is projected to result in a greater frequency of billion-dollar disaster events.”
Moftakhari emphasized, “From the discipline of coastal engineering and risk management, these findings carry significant implications for governmental planning, infrastructure design, and response strategies to these evolving hazards.”
Evacuation protocols must be recalibrated to acknowledge the heightened propensity for rapid intensification and greater threat posed by storms that traverse oceanic heat zones, Moftakhari advised. The implementation of earlier warning signals and activation triggers for civilian displacement may become necessary when marine heat waves are present.
The design specifications for flood defenses, drainage infrastructure, and seawalls must be updated to reflect the escalating reality of storm behavior, he added.
External experts concur that the study aligns with established principles of hurricane physics and climate change dynamics, while providing a more precise quantification of the increased likelihood of catastrophic damage in the presence of marine heat waves.
“Climate change is precipitating more intense and prolonged marine heat waves. Tropical cyclones derive their energy and generate heavy precipitation through evaporation from warm ocean surfaces,” explained Brian Tang, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University at Albany, who was not involved in the research.
“It is logical to infer that marine heat waves are indeed turbocharging hurricanes, assuming other atmospheric conditions are conducive to intensification. Essentially, the odds are being stacked in favor of more powerful storms.”
