The idiom “house of cards,” while now predominantly recognized for its association with a prominent Netflix political drama, originally denotes a system inherently lacking in stability.
This precise terminology was adopted by Sarah Thiele, a former PhD candidate at the University of British Columbia now affiliated with Princeton, and her fellow researchers to characterize the current landscape of satellite mega-constellations in a recent pre-print study accessible on arXiv.
Their justification for employing this metaphor is well-supported by empirical data. Calculations indicate that within all Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) mega-constellations, a proximity incident – defined as two satellites approaching within a kilometer of each other – transpires every 22 seconds. For Starlink specifically, this close encounter occurs once every 11 minutes.
Another notable statistic pertaining to Starlink reveals that, on average, each of its thousands of satellites must execute 41 orbital adjustment maneuvers annually to circumvent potential collisions with other spaceborne objects.
While this might ostensibly suggest a highly optimized operational system, seasoned engineers are quick to point out that system failures are most frequently precipitated by edge cases – scenarios that deviate from typical operating parameters.
The aforementioned paper identifies solar storms as a significant potential edge case for satellite mega-constellations.
Solar storms typically impact satellite functionality through two primary mechanisms.
Firstly, they induce atmospheric heating, leading to augmented atmospheric drag and diminished positional accuracy for certain satellites. The increased drag necessitates greater propellant consumption to maintain orbital trajectory and often triggers evasive maneuvers to preclude potential orbital conflicts with other spacecraft.
During the “Gannon Storm” in May 2024 (which, regrettably, does not appear to be named after the iconic Zelda antagonist), a substantial proportion of LEO satellites were compelled to expend a portion of their fuel reserves on these repositioning maneuvers.
Secondly, and potentially more critically, solar storms possess the capacity to disable the navigational and communication systems aboard satellites. Such an event would render them incapable of executing evasive actions, and when compounded by the heightened drag and positional uncertainty resulting from atmospheric dilation, it could precipitate an immediate catastrophic outcome.
The Kessler syndrome represents the most widely recognized manifestation of such a catastrophe, wherein a pervasive cloud of orbital debris encircles Earth, rendering subsequent space launches unfeasible due to the high probability of destruction.
However, the full development of Kessler syndrome is a process that unfolds over decades. To underscore the urgency of the threat posed by solar storms, the researchers introduced a novel metric: the Collision Realization and Significant Harm (CRASH) Clock.
Their computations suggest that as of June 2025, should satellite operators forfeit their command capabilities for avoidance maneuvers, a catastrophic collision would occur within approximately 2.8 days.
This starkly contrasts with the calculated 121 days that would have been the benchmark in 2018, prior to the advent of the megaconstellation era, thereby elucidating the basis for their apprehension.
Perhaps even more disquieting is the finding that a mere 24-hour loss of operator control carries a 30 percent probability of initiating a catastrophic collision, potentially serving as the catalyst for the protracted Kessler syndrome scenario.
Unfortunately, solar storms offer minimal advance warning, typically no more than a day or two. Furthermore, even with such notice, our capacity to mitigate their effects is often limited to safeguarding vulnerable satellites.
Nonetheless, the dynamic atmospheric conditions they introduce necessitate real-time feedback and control mechanisms for effective satellite management. The paper posits that if this real-time control network is compromised, we have a mere few days to reinstate it before the entire precarious structure collapses.
This is not unfounded speculation. The 2024 Gannon storm, while significant, was not unprecedented; historical records document the Carrington Event of 1859, a solar storm of considerably greater magnitude. A similar event today would likely obliterate our satellite control capabilities for an extended period exceeding three days.
In essence, a singular event, for which historical precedent exists, could decimate our satellite infrastructure, effectively grounding humanity for the foreseeable future.
This prospect is unlikely to be desirable for readers of this publication. While the utilization of LEO mega-constellations offers significant technological advantages, it is imperative to conduct a realistic assessment of the attendant risks to future space exploration.
With regard to the potential for losing access to space for subsequent generations due to an exceptionally severe solar storm, it is prudent to base decisions on informed risk evaluations, a pursuit facilitated by this study.
This analysis was initially disseminated by Universe Today. The original publication can be accessed here.
